Climate Change and the Displacement of Populations: Climate Refugees?

By Lydia Argumedo

The global challenge that is climate change poses detrimental threats to communities everywhere. Research even shows that Earth’s climate is changing at rates greater than forecasted by scientists- signaling a more drastic issue than previously predicted. Having recorded 6 of the warmest years on record since 2014, the rate of sea-level rise doubling in the last two decades, and the highest levels of carbon dioxide concentration being recorded in 2020, it is clear we are already in times in which climate change affects us all. But for some, especially those who live in the most vulnerable of areas, climate change has already begun to alter livelihoods in ways we might have not thought of. The existence of “climate refugees” is a reality that must be recognized, and their existence appears to only multiply in the future.

Extreme weather events are intensified with climate change, which includes events such as droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, cyclones, and flooding- these accounted for about 23 million people being forcibly displaced in 2017. Climate change further contributes to slow onset events like sea-level rise, desertification, ocean acidification, air pollution, land degradation, rain pattern shifts, and loss of biodiversity. Crops and livestock struggle to survive as conditions become too hot and dry in ‘hot spots,’ causing food insecurity to be exacerbated. There are also limited resources of drinking water, with increasing sea-levels infiltrating these freshwater systems.

For example, sea-level rise is occurring at 12 millimeters per year in the western Pacific, severely impacting the Pacific Islands and Islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. Eight islands have already been submerged and two more are close to disappearing because of this rise in sea level. With such events, in 2015, the Teitota family became the first to apply for refugee status with explicit attribution to climate change. Their request for refuge in New Zealand made it to the high courts but resulted in dismissal. There are 2.3 million people spread across 11 countries in this highly impacted and vulnerable region being hit with sea-level rise and further climatic events. The Teitota family is just one example of the many that are experiencing the extreme effects of climate change.

Large parts of the village Eita, in the island republic Kiribati in the Central Pacific, family members gather rocks and coral to build a stone wall to try and protect against rising sea levels.

While this is the first occurrence of refuge being legally attributed to climate change, it is not to say we have not seen its effects before in different manners. For example, in 2011, the Horn of Africa experienced one of the worst droughts in its region’s history, which greatly increased the forced migration flow. Afghanistan saw a similar severe drought in 2018 as well. And in 2019, 146,000 people were internally displaced in Mozambique following Tropical Cyclone Idai. With flooding damaging 100,000 homes, destruction of 1 million acres of crops, and 1.85 million people needing assistance, climate change is pushing us in a direction in which these “unprecedented” storms become the norm. A 2017 Institute for Economics and Peace report stated that nearly 1 billion people currently live in areas of “high” or “very high” climate exposure. The impacts we have already seen will only become more frequent and severe in the future. Rapid economic growth and urbanization are additional factors that work to accelerate the results of climate change. There will be amplified effects of climate change as the demand for energy looks to grow 66 percent by 2040. At the same time, urban areas that are located in low-lying coastal areas that will most be impacted by sea-level rise will continue to expand.

With the impacts that climate change imposes on communities around the world, there becomes a clear alteration and acceleration of human migration patterns. This effect is one of the most notable results that climate change has on the human population. A 2018 World Bank report estimated that there would be 143 million climate change-driven migrants by 2050, from just the regions of Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia. Ecological disruptions will cause these critical issues of large-scale human migration because of scarcity in resources, such as drinking water and infrastructure, and the increased frequency of extreme weather events we have already begun to see. This will be especially true of locations in lower latitudes, which are generally developing countries. As this increased migration occurs, there will be an intensification of intra- and inter-state competition of resources, such as food and water, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. The strain will further be placed on countries specifically affected, but as well as those that act as the destination.

A woman draws water from a muddy hole in Africa while experiencing the drastic effects of the drought.

Climate change has also played an indirect role when it comes to the displacement of individuals. With the 2011 civil war in Syria, climate and security experts cite the extreme drought that preceded as an influence. Furthermore, climate change and terrorism have been shown to have a connection. With the decrease in agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, there has been a link to the al-Qaida financial recruiting strategy’s effectiveness. The pressure that climate change issues have had in the past is just a warning sign of the immeasurable consequences that may come in the future if more is not done to prevent the detrimental environmental impacts.

One of the largest complications to consider when it comes to climate change’s impact is the term of “climate refugees” itself. This term does not exist in international law and is not endorsed by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The 1951 Refugee Convention has set forth the legal definition of a refugee, and it has since then not been altered. According to this definition, a refugee is “someone who is unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.” Since the driving force of this definition is the urge to flee political persecution, those who leave their home because of the effects of climate change do not qualify for the rights to be protected under the status of refuge. The UNHCR instead calls them “environmental migrants,” and these individuals generally do not go where they should, but just where they can. Other times they are called “environmentally displaced persons (EDPs),” or “environmental refugees”- a term which became popular in 1985 with a paper published by El-Hinnawi on the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). Without proper “labeling,” these individuals are not yet able to receive any legal status or normative protection as they face the most extreme consequences of climate change.

The call to expand or redefine the term of refugee has been discussed. If we continue on the course we are now, there will be more individuals that are forcibly displaced because of the effects of climate change. More individuals will fall under the umbrella of a “climate refugee” or an “environmental refugee,” but if ambiguity remains, little will be done to aid those so negatively impacted. Additionally, there have been calls from countries to better acknowledge the impact that climate change has on the relocation and displacement of individuals. For example, signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement requested the development of recommendations on addressing persons displaced by climate change. The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by 193 countries, though not legally binding, is another showcase of countries working in the right direction. The SDGs address migration and climate change with targets like “facilitate orderly, safe, and responsible migration of people, including through implementation of planned and well-managed policies” and “strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.”

If we wait too long to implement concrete measures in dealing with climate change, and spend too much time nitpicking what a “climate refugee” is, it will be too late. Climate change is happening at an increasing rate and people’s lives are already being impacted. It is necessary that we work against the acceleration of climate change, while also being prepared to aid those who have experienced its wrath.

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